Take a breath. When your urgency instinct is triggered, because your other instincts kick in too and your ability for analysis shuts down. Ask for more time and more information. It's rarely now or never and it's rarely either/or.
Insist on the data. If something is urgent and important, it should be measured. Beware of data that is relevant but inaccurate, or accurate but irrelevant. Only relevant and accurate data is useful.
Beware of fortune-tellers. Any prediction about the future is uncertain. Be wary of predictions that fail to acknowledge that. Insist on a full range of scenarios, never just the best or worst. Ask how often such predictions have been right before. Be wary of drastic action. Ask what the side effects will be. Ask how the idea has been tested. Step by step practical improvements, and evaluation of their impact, are less dramatic but usually more effective. . .
Hans Rosling, Factfulness; first published in Great Britain in 2018 by Sceptre
An Imprint of Hodder & Stoughton
An Hachette UK Company
Hans Rosling* (27 July 1948 – 7 February 2017) was a Swedish physician, academic, and public speaker. He was the Professor of International Health at Karolinska Institute and was the co-founder and chairman of the Gapminder Foundation, which developed the Trendalyzer software system.
In March the politicians outperformed each other in hectic measures to protect us from Corona.
Since then we have been confronted with new numbers almost every day difficult for us to keep pace with. Depending on how you look at it - threatening or harmless - the methods of presentation change.
Now that April has passed its zenith, contradictions increasingly come to light and obscure the perspective that we meant to have gained.
At this point I would like to quote Prof. Stefan Homburg *, who found very clear words to give us a better insight and make us understand the figures of March 2020, the month of the lockdown.
There was a general halt to public life in Austria on March 16 and in Germany on March 23. The restrictions were increasingly extended and prolonged. The path emerged by walking, so to speak, at least you get this impression.
I present the figures of the Robert Koch Institute, Berlin (RKI). To convert or transfer German numbers, figures or charts for Austria applies as usual one tenth.
On March 20, the RKI published a reproduction rate of less than 1 - this was two days before the lockdown in Germany. If you look at the graphic of the RKI in March, it becomes apparent that the peak of the disease wave was already taking place during the first half of March.
On March 20, the RKI also published figures that predict cases of death between 300,000 and 1.5 million. At the present time, the current numbers are between 4000 and 5000.
In Austria, the numbers are reduced by a factor of 10, which makes up for 400 to 500 cases (this is as per to day the actual number)
These figures show that the lockdown was either ineffective or unnecessary.
The predicted death cases are based on pure speculation.
According to Prof. Stefan Homburg, these figures have been announced by a person at the RKI who already predicted 70,000 heat deaths for Germany in 2019 - an event that never happened. Prof. Homburg speaks of an alarmist.
He does not want to speculate as to why the politicians imposed all these measures on us. Nevertheless, according to Stefan Homburg, it can currently be seen from the surveys that the popularity of a politician increases the more drastic the so-called measures for our security are.
In new elections the Austrian chancellor Kurz currently would achieve an absolute majority of round about 65%.
Despite these moderate figures which do not give rise to any panic, politicians are still proclaiming threatening scenarios based on pure speculation. The hospitals are far from being overwhelmed with patients, there are also plenty of ICU beds available.
Another very meaningful graphic is based on death cases per year and week in Europe of the Momo (Mortality monitoring in Europe). These data are unquestionable, since death represents a clear end point and its assessment or determination is not subject to the interpretation of different mindsets and opinions.
This graphic shows that more death cases occurred in the same period in 2016/17 than at the peak of corona infection this year. These numbers include all deaths in Europe from suicide to tumor.
The illustration shows a seasonal wave movement, which is recurring over the years and reflects, for example, the yearly flu epidemic. It also becomes very obvious that the dead are over 65 years old and have a history of other health issues such as tumors. The underlying cause that death occurs is always and without exception a poor, weakened immunity, for whatever reason.
Source: Interview Punkt.Preradovic with Prof. Stefan Homburg, April 17th, 2020
Stefan Homburg is a professor of public finance and director of the Institute for Public Finance at Leibniz Universität Hannover. He was also an advisor to Chancellor Schröder.