Oxford mathematician Peter Donnelly explores the common mistakes we make in interpreting statistics, and
the devastating impact these errors can have on the outcome of criminal
trials. Statistical uncertainty and randomness, he says, confound many
of our assumptions about the world. He shares the case of a British
woman wrongly convicted of murdering her two infants — a verdict
reached, in part, by the misuse of statistics.
Uncertainty, randomness, chance… these are the territories of statistics, and they are tricky to deal with, not only for us non-experts. Logic of uncertainty is different, it is beyond that what we think is logic. Listen to this interesting talk. It is really elucidating, and gives evidence about the fact that statistics of uncertainty, randomness and chance is contextual too, is about defining and understanding relations among the players, parameters, facts – one name it – involved. A statistical figure evolves from relations that depends on the applied theoretical model.
Peter Donnelly is an expert in probability theory who applies
statistical methods to genetic data — spurring advances in disease
treatment and insight on our evolution. He’s also an expert on DNA
analysis, and an advocate for sensible statistical analysis in the
courtroom.
